Steinitz's Combination · 1895

38% of club players play Rxc8 here — and it throws away 4.4 pawns

White to move in Steinitz's Combination
White to move. FEN: r1r5/pp1qnk1p/4Npp1/3p4/6Q1/8/PP3PPP/2R1R1K1 w - - 0 21

38% of players rated around 1500 play Rxc8 in this position. It is the natural move, and it is not the best one.

MovePlayed byEvaluation
Rxc8 the reflex38% of 1500-rated humans+25 centipawns
Ng5+ the move13%+461 centipawns

The difference is 4.4 pawns — a double attack (king and queen).

How this was checked

The evaluations are Stockfish. The human percentages are Maia, a neural network trained on millions of human games and conditioned on rating — so 38% of players around 1500 is a measurement of what people actually do, not an estimate of what they might. Any tactical motif named above is verified against the board geometry rather than described.

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